On Monday, January 20, Donald Trump will take oath as the 47th President of the United States. The inauguration, set to start at 6PM CET/12PM ET/9AM PT will see Trump return to the White House after losing to Joe Biden in 2020. Unlike his previous victory, Trump is returning with a resounding victory, where he not only swept the electoral college but also won the popular vote, a sore point from his 2016 win. Alongside his victory, Trump has also propelled Republicans to big wins in the Senate and the House, meaning his actions will not only define the future of the USA but also democracy at large.
While his win will impact every industry and every country, one industry that has already decided to kiss the ring is tech. A number of tech executives have made a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago, a beach resort owned by Trump and have taken measures like moving their business out of China or cutting down or abandoning DEI measures to align with the Trump agenda. When Trump sits behind the resolute desk in the Oval Office, his actions will have an impact on everything from TikTok, and cryptocurrency to AI and big tech. Elon Musk won’t be an exception either. Here’s a look at how Trump’s presidency will affect the tech world in the next four years.
TikTok
Trump’s test as a world leader begins even before he takes office. After the US Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the federal government can legally shut down TikTok, the app used by about half of Americans went dark for a brief period before Trump promised that he will sign an executive order reinstating the app for 90 days. While Trump agrees with a bipartisan bill that deemed TikTok as a national security risk and argued for the app to spin off from its Chinese parent company, the incoming president is not clear on the resolution.
TikTok’s availability, or the lack thereof, will have an impact not only on American content creators and China but also on the American economy. Trump has stated that he wants to see America take an ownership stake in TikTok, while rumours have floated that China might consider selling the app to Elon Musk, a confidante of Trump. The big question is how Trump will make ByteDance or China sell the app or divest from it.
Cryptocurrency
One industry that seems set to thrive under Trump is cryptocurrency. After the election was called for Trump on November 6, Bitcoin gained 9.5 per cent, a sign that the industry sees Trump to deliver on his promise of turning America into the “crypto capital of the planet.” On December 5, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $100,000 after Trump nominated Paul Atkins as SEC chair. Atkins replaces Gary Gensler, who had been one of the staunch opponents of crypto and called digital assets highly speculative.
With Trump’s promise of being a “crypto president” and his recent launch of a digital token called $TRUMP on Friday, Trump has shown he will be the crypto-in-chief and not just commander in chief. On Monday, ahead of his inauguration, the meme coin with an image from his attempted assassination in July surged to a market value of $12B. This digital token joins Trump’s other cryptocurrency interests, including World Liberty Financial.
Melania Trump launched her own Solana coin and CoinMarketCap estimates it to have a market value of $1.9B. The launch of Trump coin has surprised even hardcore crypto enthusiasts and raises many ethical and regulatory questions. One thing is certain: the crypto industry is looking ahead to looser regulations, allowing Bitcoin to further rally in trading.
Big Tech
While President Biden went after big tech for their monopolistic behaviour, abuse of privacy or antitrust violations, Trump has promised to take a less aggressive stance on big tech. Soon after he was declared President-elect, the leaders from major tech companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Intel, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and OpenAI congratulated Trump. Some even made a visit to him at Mar-a-Lago and have taken steps to align with Republican policies.
One of the ways Trump plans to get behind the big tech corporations is by replacing FTC chair Lina Khan, who has been a staunch critic of companies like Amazon and Meta. Trump claims to be antiregulation and the realignment between big tech companies and Trump could allow the likes of Meta, Google, Amazon, and others to further dominate our lives.
While he has promised to regulate the industry less, he has also promised to levy hefty tariffs on imported goods, especially those coming from China, Canada and Mexico. According to the Consumer Technology Association, the proposed tariffs could reduce the purchasing power for consumer technology in the US by $90B annually.
Artificial intelligence
Where does Trump stand on AI? Well, Trump is not expected to shake the boat in a big way when it comes to artificial intelligence. For starters, he is expected to keep laws restricting US semiconductor companies from selling to China and might even go a step further to impose restrictions on Chinese companies’ use of US-based cloud computing services. He might also introduce restrictions that keep foundation models away from Chinese technology firms.
An unknown in the AI world is whether Trump would go as far as to shut down the AI Safety Institute. The 47th President of the United States believes that AI imposed “Radical Leftwing ideas” on the development of this next-generation technology. He is also likely to encourage the use of AI for national security and try to impose new restrictions to keep the US ahead of China in the AI race.
Immigration and talent
While Trump has promised deregulation and a business-friendly environment through tax reform, he has also taken a tough stance on immigration. His plans to restrict H-1B visas will impact the tech industry and restrict American startups and corporations from bringing international talent to the US.
The likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Qualcomm, Apple, and others have all emerged leaders in their respective business by relying on skilled international talent. A tightened policy means that American tech companies will have to invest more in domestic talent, which could lead to increased cost and talent shortage while culling American dream of many Indians.
Net neutrality and cybersecurity
Under Trump, established tech companies are expected to thrive, while smaller startups might succumb to a lack of a level playing field. The Trump administration’s approach to net neutrality and his eagerness to not stop mergers means a number of startups could acquire from bigger tech companies. While net neutrality’s chances look dim, cybersecurity could see renewed support, with Trump arguing for the need to bolster cybersecurity and this might open up opportunities for security startups to thrive.
Climate Tech and sustainability
Trump has always been sceptical about climate change, and his withdrawal from Paris Agreement shows that the next four years of Trump presidency could be a bad omen for green tech and renewable energy startups. He has promised to roll back emission norms and even allow for more drilling of fossil fuels. While this could play negatively in the national level, many states could counterbalance the impact with their own initiatives.
Elon Musk
The biggest benefactor of Trump presidency could be Elon Musk. With interests in things ranging from electric vehicles, space to brain implants, Musk has gone from an eccentric tech billionaire to a crypto enthusiast to someone capable of changing world politics. His outsized role in electing Trump cannot be overlooked, and many see his companies – SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, and X benefitting from Trump’s presidency.
Many already see him as a pseudo-president, and with a platform like X under his helm, he wields unconventional power. While Musk is the billionaire with outsized influence on Trump, there are others like David Sacks, Marc Andreessen, and Peter Thiel with proximity to Trump and possibility to gain favours. The looming question is whether Trump and Musk, two people with large personas, can work together for four years. If they ever have a fallout, its impact could be bigger than any other breakup in tech history.
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