AI’s first visible employment shock may be hitting the bottom rung of the career ladder: by June 2026, employment among 22–25-year-olds in highly AI-exposed occupations was running 19% behind their less-exposed peers, largely because companies were hiring fewer juniors—not firing experienced workers—raising an uncomfortable question about who becomes tomorrow’s senior analyst, lawyer or coder.
Updated payroll data point to a widening early-career employment gap in AI-exposed work, driven more by reduced hiring than by layoffs.